BTC €61’885Distance to floor +1.6 %Zone Accumulation€1 = 1’616 sats
21Bitcoin Power Law My Goal

Power Law

Where Bitcoin stands in its long-term trend

At €61’885 bitcoin is 37 % below its long-term trend and 2 % above its floor: a range in which buying and holding for years has paid off every time so far.

Live price€61’885
Floor today€60’778.2653+€53.01 a day · For your stack
Distance to the floor+1.6 %

The floor reaches today's price in less than a month.

Price as of 2026-11-13 23:01 UTC (OKX).

Log chart since 2010

The daily close on a logarithmic scale with trend (fair value), floor and top band. The top band comes down toward the floor, as the cycle tops did, and since Jan 2022 the trend runs in the middle between the two; the lines never cross. The dots mark the bear-market lows. The model's lines run one year into the future.

The same chart on a linear scale: every dollar is the same height. It shows how large the moves of recent years are in dollars; the early years nearly vanish on the zero line. In percent each line grows more slowly every year: the trend by 29 % over the next twelve months, after 82 % in 2018 and 182 % in 2014, and the floor by 36 %. In dollars all three still get steeper here, because a smaller percentage of a much larger amount is more dollars. The top band stays above the trend, today at 1.62 × the trend, and the trend above the floor; measured against each other the three run closer together every year. The floor is the model's hardest claim, and it is being tested: by Dec 2028 the price must be above its highest close so far, or it is below the floor.

The Power Law's own view: price and time both on a logarithmic scale, time counted in days since the genesis block (3 Jan 2009). Here the floor is a straight line: the published Power Law. The trend runs parallel above it until Jan 2022 and bends toward it since; the top band bends toward the floor all the way. The years move closer together to the right because each year is a smaller share of bitcoin's lifetime.

The daily close on a logarithmic scale with its 2-year moving average (green, the average of the last 730 daily closes) and an upper line (red). Every boom peaked at about half as many times the average as the boom before, so the red line comes down with those peaks instead of staying at a fixed five times the average. Historically, buying when the price fell below the green line brought large returns, and a rise above the red line was a good time to take profits.

$0.01$0.10$1.00$10$100$1’000$10’000$100’000$1M202720252023202120192017201520132011Top bandTrendFloorBear-market low: $2.11 (18 Nov 2011)Nov 2011$2.11Bear-market low: $176 (14 Jan 2015)Jan 2015$176Bear-market low: $3’212 (15 Dec 2018)Dec 2018$3’212Bear-market low: $15’784 (21 Nov 2022)Nov 2022$15’784today
$0$50’000$100’000$150’000$200’000$250’000202720252023202120192017201520132011Top bandTrendFloorBear-market low: $2.11 (18 Nov 2011)Nov 2011$2.11Bear-market low: $176 (14 Jan 2015)Jan 2015$176Bear-market low: $3’212 (15 Dec 2018)Dec 2018$3’212Bear-market low: $15’784 (21 Nov 2022)Nov 2022$15’784today
$0.01$0.10$1.00$10$100$1’000$10’000$100’000$1M20272023202020172015201320122011Top bandTrendFloorBear-market low: $2.11 (18 Nov 2011)Nov 2011$2.11Bear-market low: $176 (14 Jan 2015)Jan 2015$176Bear-market low: $3’212 (15 Dec 2018)Dec 2018$3’212Bear-market low: $15’784 (21 Nov 2022)Nov 2022$15’784today
  • Price
  • Trend
  • Floor
  • Top band
  • Bear-market low
$0.01$0.10$1.00$10$100$1’000$10’000$100’000$1M201220142016201820202022202420262Y MA ×1.492Y MAtoday
  • Price
  • 2Y MA
  • Upper line

Today: $68’220, ×0.8 the 2-year average of $89’392. The red line is at $133’631, ×1.49 the average.

Daily closes in US dollars from 18 Jul 2010 to 12 Nov 2026: from 11 January 2018 from OKX (BTC-USDT), before that Coin Metrics' reference price. Move your mouse or finger over a chart to see a day's figures.

The model today

Fair value (trend)
€98’511
Floor today
€60’778.2653
Top band
€159’668
Price ÷ fair value
0.63×
Distance to the floor
+1.6 %
Distance to fair value
−37.3 %
Zone
Accumulation · Heavy buy

What the zones mean

  • Floor zoneTodayHeavy buy

    The price is lower than at almost any time in Bitcoin's history, measured against its trend. The model sees it as extremely undervalued. So far, the price was higher a year later on 100 % of the days in this zone.

    below the floortoday below €60’778
  • AccumulationTodayHeavy buy

    The price is well below its long-term trend, closer to the floor than to the trend. Historically, this has been a good range for buying and holding for years. So far, the price was higher a year later on 100 % of the days in this zone.

    from the floor to halfway to fair value on the log charttoday €60’778 to €77’378
  • FairTodayBuy

    The price is close to its long-term trend: the model's neutral estimate of what Bitcoin is worth today. So far, the price was higher a year later on 78 % of the days in this zone.

    around fair value: from halfway down to the floor to halfway up to the top band on the log charttoday €77’378 to €125’415
  • HotTodayHold

    The price is near the top band, the level the cycle tops have reached. In the past, this has usually come before larger corrections. So far, the price was higher a year later on only 6 % of the days in this zone.

    the upper half of the way from fair value to the top bandtoday €125’415 to €159’668
  • EuphoriaTodaySell a small portion only

    The price is above the top band, the model's line through the earlier cycle tops. By the model's measure it is extremely high. So far, the price was higher a year later on 0 % of the days in this zone.

    above the top bandtoday above €159’668

Who is buying and who is selling

Green countries bought more bitcoin than they sold, red ones sold more. The arcs show where the coins went.

  • Buying
  • Selling
  • Flow (estimate)

Last 24 hours, trades in local currency on OKX, Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, bitFlyer and Bitso.

  1. Japan+17.5 BTC
  2. Brazil+4.2 BTC
  3. Indonesia+2.0 BTC
  4. Poland+1.1 BTC
  5. Thailand+1.0 BTC
  6. United Kingdom+1.000 BTC
  7. India+0.075 BTC
  8. Argentina−0.314 BTC
  9. Australia−0.453 BTC
  10. United Arab Emirates−1.2 BTC
  11. Mexico−8.5 BTC
  12. Euro area−9.5 BTC
  13. Turkey−18.1 BTC
  14. South Korea−446 BTC
  15. United States of America−2’630 BTC

Flows between them

  1. United States of America → Japan14.8 BTC
  2. United States of America → Brazil3.6 BTC
  3. South Korea → Japan2.5 BTC
  4. United States of America → Indonesia1.7 BTC
  5. United States of America → Poland0.922 BTC
  6. United States of America → Thailand0.860 BTC
  7. Sellers → rest of the market3’087 BTC

Buying is a trade started by a buyer, selling one started by a seller, on the exchanges' markets in a local currency: OKX, Binance, Binance.US, Coinbase, Upbit (Korea), bitFlyer (Japan) and Bitso (Mexico, Argentina). The euro counts for the whole euro area, the US dollar on Coinbase and Binance.US for the United States; other dollar and stablecoin markets serve the whole world and are left out. The flows are our estimate: what the sellers sold, shared among the buyers in proportion; the rest went to or came from the rest of the market.

Drawdown from the all-time high

The drawdown is how far Bitcoin is below its last all-time high. At a new high it is 0 %; the deeper the fall, the more negative it gets. It shows how deep earlier falls went and how long the price stayed down.

  • Drawdown
  • Price (log scale, right)
0 %−20 %−40 %−60 %−80 %−100 %$0.01$1.00$100$10’000$1M20122014201620182020202220242026−92.7 % · Nov 2011today

Drawdown today

Current drawdown−45.3 %below the all-time high
All-time high$124’6736 Oct 2025
Days since the all-time high403days
Current price$68’22013 Nov 2026
Largest drawdown−92.7 %18 Nov 2011
Average drawdown−44.1 %over every day since Jul 2010

Daily closes in US dollars; today's drawdown uses the live price. The average is the mean of every day's drawdown, so the long bear markets weigh more than the short dips.

Bitcoin CAGR

The compound annual growth rate: the average yearly return of someone who bought 4, 5 or 10 years earlier, or at the first close, and held. Choose the period; the line shows it for every day, the price runs alongside.

  • CAGR (left scale)
  • Price in USD (right scale)
0 %50 %100 %200 %500 %1’000 %$0.10$1.00$10$100$1’000$10’000$100’00020122014201620182020202220242026+130.5 %+43.6 %+2.2 %+58.7 %
All-time CAGR+129.9 %Average yearly return since 18 Jul 2010 ($0.09)
4-year CAGR+43.0 %Average yearly return since 13 Nov 2022 ($16’336)
5-year CAGR+1.2 %Average yearly return since 13 Nov 2021 ($64’378)
10-year CAGR+58.0 %Average yearly return since 13 Nov 2016 ($704)
Live price€61’885Price as of 2026-11-13 23:01 UTC (OKX).

CAGR = (price ÷ price at the start)^(1 ÷ years) − 1, from the daily closes. All-time starts at the first close on 18 Jul 2010 and is drawn from 2 years after it. Both scales are logarithmic, so the steep early years and today's rates both stay readable.

Returns

Bitcoin's return in each calendar year, from the last close of the year before to the year's last close; the current year up to today's price. Green for a gain, red for a loss.

  1. 2011+1’471 %
  2. 2012+187 %
  3. 2013+5’286 %
  4. 2014−56 %
  5. 2015+34 %
  6. 2016+126 %
  7. 2017+1’337 %
  8. 2018−73 %
  9. 2019+94 %
  10. 2020+302 %
  11. 2021+60 %
  12. 2022−64 %
  13. 2023+156 %
  14. 2024+121 %
  15. 2025−6 %
  16. 2026 · so far−22 %

How much bitcoin rose or fell in each month since 2010: the month's last daily close against the previous month's, green for a gain, red for a loss.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2026−10.2 %−14.9 %+2.0 %+11.8 %−3.5 %−20.4 %+7.3 %+24.9 %+6.4 %−7.3 %−7.8 %
2025+9.5 %−17.7 %−2.1 %+14.1 %+11.1 %+2.4 %+8.0 %−6.5 %+5.4 %−3.9 %−17.6 %−3.0 %
2024+0.7 %+43.6 %+16.6 %−14.9 %+11.3 %−7.1 %+3.0 %−8.8 %+7.4 %+11.0 %+37.1 %−2.9 %
2023+39.8 %0.0 %+23.0 %+2.7 %−6.9 %+12.0 %−4.1 %−11.3 %+3.9 %+28.5 %+8.9 %+12.1 %
2022−16.8 %+12.2 %+5.4 %−17.3 %−15.5 %−37.3 %+16.8 %−13.9 %−3.1 %+5.5 %−16.2 %−3.6 %
2021+14.5 %+36.3 %+30.2 %−1.8 %−35.4 %−5.9 %+18.3 %+13.6 %−7.0 %+39.9 %−7.1 %−18.8 %
2020+30.0 %−8.8 %−24.8 %+34.5 %+9.6 %−3.3 %+24.1 %+2.8 %−7.5 %+26.8 %+44.1 %+46.8 %
2019−7.2 %+11.1 %+7.6 %+29.7 %+60.8 %+26.8 %−7.1 %−4.9 %−13.6 %+10.3 %−17.5 %−4.6 %
2018−26.1 %+0.3 %−32.9 %+33.5 %−19.1 %−14.6 %+21.0 %−9.4 %−5.5 %−3.9 %−36.6 %−8.4 %
20170.0 %+22.7 %−9.0 %+27.8 %+66.4 %+6.7 %+16.7 %+65.6 %−8.6 %+48.3 %+55.5 %+39.3 %
2016−14.7 %+19.5 %−5.0 %+8.2 %+18.0 %+27.0 %−7.3 %−8.4 %+6.4 %+14.8 %+6.2 %+30.6 %
2015−32.2 %+17.3 %−4.0 %−3.4 %−2.9 %+15.0 %+7.9 %−18.9 %+2.6 %+32.7 %+20.1 %+13.9 %
2014+10.1 %−31.4 %−17.4 %−1.4 %+39.9 %+1.8 %−8.9 %−17.8 %−18.7 %−13.4 %+12.3 %−15.3 %
2013+51.4 %+62.7 %+181.3 %+48.2 %−8.1 %−30.0 %+9.5 %+31.0 %−1.8 %+61.2 %+450.6 %−34.8 %
2012+17.5 %−12.0 %+0.3 %+1.1 %+4.8 %+28.9 %+39.5 %+8.4 %+22.7 %−10.1 %+12.9 %+7.6 %
2011+75.0 %+63.8 %−8.8 %+346.1 %+149.2 %+85.6 %−17.4 %−38.7 %−37.3 %−36.5 %−9.2 %+58.9 %
2010−11.2 %+3.2 %+211.0 %+8.2 %+44.1 %

In USD. The current month runs to the latest daily close, 12 Nov 2026.

Next difficulty adjustment

Every 2’016 blocks Bitcoin adjusts how hard it is to find a block, so that one is found about every 10 minutes. If blocks came faster, it gets harder; if slower, easier.

1’993 blocks23 to go
Average block time10:57minutes per block in this period (goal 10:00)
Expected change−8.59 %previous change: +5.54 %
Expected adjustmentin 4 hours · block 975’744

Block heights, times and difficulty from mempool.space, every two minutes. The expected change and date assume the period goes on at its average pace so far. Mining today →

The ladder

Where today's price stands among all daily closes in history. Each rung is a price below which a certain share of all days closed.

11.5 % of all 5’962 days since 18 Jul 2010 were more expensive than today.

  1. $124’673100 % of days were cheaper
  2. $72’34590 % of days were cheaper
  3. $68’220Today: 11.5 % of days were more expensive
  4. $47’64180 % of days were cheaper
  5. $27’12070 % of days were cheaper
  6. $10’66860 % of days were cheaper
  7. $6’70850 % of days were cheaper
  8. $99740 % of days were cheaper
  9. $43930 % of days were cheaper
  10. $18620 % of days were cheaper
  11. $6.7210 % of days were cheaper
  12. $0.050 % of days were cheaper

Cycle tracker

The current cycle compared with earlier ones, since the halving or since the all-time high. The current cycle is orange.

Since the halving: price as a multiple of the price on the halving day

Today is day 936 after the halving of 20 Apr 2024. The price is 1.1 times its value on the halving day.

×0.5×1.0×2.0×5.0×10×20×50×1000 yApr 20241 yApr 20252 yApr 20263 yApr 20274 yApr 20282012–162016–202020–24Today, 13 Nov 2026
HalvingPrice on the halvingOn day 936Highest multiple
2012$12×20×92 · Day 371
2016$652×5.3×30 · Day 525
2020$8’559×2.0×8.5 · Day 1’402
2024$64’938×1.1×1.9 · Day 534

Since the all-time high: distance to the high

The last all-time high was on 6 Oct 2025 at $124’673, 402 days ago. Today the price is 43 % below it.

0 %−20 %−40 %−60 %−80 %−100 %0 yOct 20251 yOct 20262 yOct 20273 yOct 2028Jun 2011Dec 2013Dec 2017Nov 2021Today, 13 Nov 2026
All-time highOn day 402Lowest point · day
Jun 2011 · $29−74 %−93 % · Day 163
Dec 2013 · $1’135−76 %−85 % · Day 406
Dec 2017 · $19’641−82 %−84 % · Day 364
Nov 2021 · $67’525−74 %−77 % · Day 378
Oct 2025 · $124’673−43 %−53 % · Day 267

Cycle analysis

Every cycle on the same timeline, from its start: the price as a multiple of the price on the day it began. A top is an all-time high that stood for at least a year, a bottom the lowest close between two tops. The latest cycle is orange.

From the halving to the cycle top

The 4 finished cycles took 494 days on average (371 to 546).

×1.0×2.0×5.0×10×20×50×1000 y1 y2012201620202024
FromToDaysChange
28 Nov 2012 · $124 Dec 2013 · $1’135371×92
9 Jul 2016 · $65216 Dec 2017 · $19’641525×30
11 May 2020 · $8’5598 Nov 2021 · $67’525546×7.9
20 Apr 2024 · $64’9386 Oct 2025 · $124’673534×1.9

From one cycle top to the next

The 4 finished cycles took 1’308 days on average (910 to 1’473). The current one began on 6 Oct 2025 and is on day 402: −43 % so far.

×0.1×0.2×0.5×1.0×2.0×5.0×10×20×500 yOct 20251 yOct 20262 yOct 20273 yOct 20284 yOct 20292011201320172021Today, 13 Nov 2026
FromToDaysChange
8 Jun 2011 · $294 Dec 2013 · $1’135910×39
4 Dec 2013 · $1’13516 Dec 2017 · $19’6411’473×17
16 Dec 2017 · $19’6418 Nov 2021 · $67’5251’423×3.4
8 Nov 2021 · $67’5256 Oct 2025 · $124’6731’428×1.8
6 Oct 2025 · $124’673open, until today402−43 %

From the cycle top to the bear-market bottom

The 4 finished cycles took 328 days on average (163 to 406). The current one began on 6 Oct 2025 and is on day 402: −43 % so far.

×0.1×0.2×0.5×1.00 yOct 20251 yOct 20262011201320172021Today, 13 Nov 2026
FromToDaysChange
8 Jun 2011 · $2918 Nov 2011 · $2.11163−93 %
4 Dec 2013 · $1’13514 Jan 2015 · $176406−85 %
16 Dec 2017 · $19’64115 Dec 2018 · $3’212364−84 %
8 Nov 2021 · $67’52521 Nov 2022 · $15’784378−77 %
6 Oct 2025 · $124’673open, until today402−43 %

From the bear-market bottom to the next cycle top

The 4 finished cycles took 981 days on average (747 to 1’067).

×1.0×2.0×5.0×10×20×50×100×200×5000 y1 y2 y3 y2011201520182022
FromToDaysChange
18 Nov 2011 · $2.114 Dec 2013 · $1’135747×539
14 Jan 2015 · $17616 Dec 2017 · $19’6411’067×112
15 Dec 2018 · $3’2128 Nov 2021 · $67’5251’059×21
21 Nov 2022 · $15’7846 Oct 2025 · $124’6731’050×7.9

From one bear-market bottom to the next

The 3 finished cycles took 1’340 days on average (1’153 to 1’437). The current one began on 21 Nov 2022 and is on day 1’452: ×4.5 so far.

×1.0×2.0×5.0×10×20×50×100×200×5000 yNov 20221 yNov 20232 yNov 20243 yNov 20254 yNov 2026201120152018Today, 13 Nov 2026
FromToDaysChange
18 Nov 2011 · $2.1114 Jan 2015 · $1761’153×83
14 Jan 2015 · $17615 Dec 2018 · $3’2121’431×18
15 Dec 2018 · $3’21221 Nov 2022 · $15’7841’437×4.9
21 Nov 2022 · $15’784open, until today1’452×4.5

Bitcoin versus …

The usual price turned around: how much bitcoin a dollar, euro, franc, pound or yen buys. Every currency buys fewer satoshis year after year (1 bitcoin = 100 million satoshis).

One dollar in satoshis

Today one dollar buys 1’399 sats. On 18 Jul 2010 it bought 1’164’958’062 sats, 832’491 times as much.

1’00010’000100’0001’000’00010’000’000100’000’0001’000’000’00020122014201620182020202220242026
Day1 BTC in dollars1 dollar in satoshis
18 Jul 2010$0.091’164’958’062 sats
28 Nov 2012$128’109’208 sats
9 Jul 2016$652153’388 sats
11 May 2020$8’55911’683 sats
20 Apr 2024$64’9381’540 sats
12 Nov 2026$71’4611’399 sats

Dollar, euro, franc, pound and yen in satoshis

  • 1 USD
  • 1 EUR
  • 1 CHF
  • 1 GBP
  • 100 JPY
1’00010’000100’0001’000’00010’000’000100’000’0001’000’000’000201220142016201820202022202420261 GBP1 CHF1 EUR1 USD100 JPY
Currency18 Jul 201028 Nov 20129 Jul 201611 May 202020 Apr 202412 Nov 2026
1 USD1’164’958’062 sats8’109’208 sats153’388 sats11’683 sats1’540 sats1’399 sats
1 EUR1’487’651’445 sats10’402’271 sats169’778 sats12’737 sats1’652 sats1’568 sats
1 CHF1’105’216’421 sats8’631’418 sats156’239 sats12’045 sats1’693 sats1’689 sats
1 GBP1’780’218’162 sats12’939’941 sats201’862 sats14’362 sats1’929 sats1’860 sats
100 JPY1’331’486’263 sats10’008’439 sats147’313 sats10’899 sats1’001 sats886 sats

Monthly: the month's last close and the European Central Bank's average exchange rate of that month; today at the latest published rates (Oct 2026).

Bear markets and cycle tops

How far the price fell after each cycle top and how long it took to reach the old high again.

TopLowFallDays to the lowDays from the low back to the topDays in total
8 Jun 2011 · $2918 Nov 2011 · $2.11−93 %163459622
4 Dec 2013 · $1’13514 Jan 2015 · $176−85 %4067711’177
16 Dec 2017 · $19’64115 Dec 2018 · $3’212−84 %3647161’080
8 Nov 2021 · $67’52521 Nov 2022 · $15’784−77 %378469847
6 Oct 2025 · $124’67330 Jun 2026 · $58’628−53 %267not yet402 so far

We count as a bear market a fall of at least 70 % from the all-time high whose low comes at least 90 days after the top. The last row is the current cycle since the last all-time high (lowest point so far).

How far each cycle top was above the trend and the floor, and how much it was from the previous bear-market low.

Cycle topPrice× trend× floor× from the previous low
8 Jun 2011$29×16×37–
4 Dec 2013$1’135×11×26×539 (Nov 2011)
16 Dec 2017$19’641×6.3×15×112 (Jan 2015)
8 Nov 2021$67’525×2.8×6.6×21 (Dec 2018)
6 Oct 2025 (so far)$124’673×1.5×2.7×7.9 (Nov 2022)

Floor and fair value for the next 10 years

What the model gives for the start of each year or quarter. Choose the currency at the top (EUR, CHF or USD).

YearFloorFair value
2027€63’531€102’182
2028€86’399€131’614
2029€115’749€168’136
2030€152’755€212’903
2031€199’007€267’547
2032€256’233€333’817
2033€326’599€413’927
2034€411’918€509’660
2035€514’819€623’691
2036€638’036€758’773
QuarterFloorFair value
Q1 2027€63’531€102’182
Q2 2027€68’641€108’857
Q3 2027€74’148€115’982
Q4 2027€80’081€123’587
Q1 2028€86’399€131’614
Q2 2028€93’047€139’989
Q3 2028€100’111€148’817
Q4 2028€107’697€158’224
Q1 2029€115’749€168’136
Q2 2029€124’101€178’344
Q3 2029€133’044€189’202
Q4 2029€142’619€200’752
Q1 2030€152’755€212’903
Q2 2030€163’238€225’395
Q3 2030€174’433€238’662
Q4 2030€186’386€252’750
Q1 2031€199’007€267’547
Q2 2031€212’027€282’735
Q3 2031€225’897€298’839
Q4 2031€240’672€315’913
Q1 2032€256’233€333’817
Q2 2032€272’433€352’375
Q3 2032€289’467€371’810
Q4 2032€307’571€392’385
Q1 2033€326’599€413’927
Q2 2033€346’141€435’972
Q3 2033€366’870€459’274
Q4 2033€388’857€483’907
Q1 2034€411’918€509’660
Q2 2034€435’557€535’976
Q3 2034€460’585€563’755
Q4 2034€487’080€593’078
Q1 2035€514’819€623’691
Q2 2035€543’203€654’931
Q3 2035€573’200€687’862
Q4 2035€604’902€722’578
Q1 2036€638’036€758’773
Q2 2036€672’266€796’079
Q3 2036€707’996€834’932
Q4 2036€745’696€875’836

The model calculates in US dollars; euros and francs converted at today's rate.

How we calculate it

The Power Law describes Bitcoin's price as a straight line on a log–log chart: price against the days since the genesis block on 3 January 2009. Our floor is the published formula that other Power Law pages use too, checked with our own regression. The top band is a curve through the cycle tops: it comes down toward the floor and never reaches it. The trend is the straight Power Law line until the middle between floor and top band lies below it, and that middle since Jan 2022. The top band always stays above the trend, and the trend above the floor.

Show the math 
Floor (USD) = 0.42 × 10^−16.493 × days^5.688
Top band (USD) = Floor (USD) × e^(3.56 ÷ (1 + (days ÷ 4692)³))
Trend (USD) = min(Floor (USD) ÷ 0.42, √(Floor (USD) × Top band (USD)))
Intercept a (log10)
−16.493
Exponent b
5.688
R²
0.961
Daily closes
5’962
From – to
2010-07-18 – 2026-11-12
Our own regression on these closes
10^−16.328 × days^5.634

Formula, our own regression, floor and data sources in the methodology →

In the magazine: the Power Law model explained simply →

Reproduce it yourself

All the data, the formula with the parameters the site uses, and the deviations from the trend. Download the table and recalculate it in your spreadsheet.

Download the data as CSV

Columns: date, close in USD, days since the genesis block, trend, floor and residual (log10 of price ÷ trend), one day per row.

Show the math

The formula

d          = days since the genesis block (3 January 2009)
floor(d)   = 0.42 × 10^-16.493 × d^5.688   (USD)
top(d)     = floor(d) × e^(3.56 ÷ (1 + (d ÷ 4692)³))
trend(d)   = min(floor(d) ÷ 0.42, √(floor(d) × top(d)))
residual   = log10(close ÷ trend(d))

Residuals

The residual is log10(price ÷ trend): 0 means exactly on the trend. Latest close: −0.182 (×0.66, 12 Nov 2026). Mean 0.005, standard deviation 0.295; lowest −0.680 (×0.21, 5 Oct 2010), highest 1.191 (×15.5, 8 Jun 2011). On 3.7 % of days the price closed below the floor, on 1.6 % in the top band.

−0.50.00.51.01.520122014201620182020202220242026×0.62 Floor×1 Trend×1.62 Top band

Check: our own regression

The same regression on the daily closes up to the end of each year and on every close so far, with the value its line gives for today beside the formula's (the floor is 0.42 × that). While the price stays low for months, the regression drifts; the formula does not.

Daily closes up toIntercept a (log10)Exponent bIts line todayAgainst the formula
End of 2023−16.5885.714€146’869+1.2 %
End of 2024−16.5405.699€143’927−0.8 %
End of 2025−16.5405.700€143’979−0.8 %
12 Nov 2026 (every close)−16.3285.634€132’460−8.7 %

No financial advice. Models are no guarantee.