Bitcoin Valuation Zones: From Floor to Euphoria

What do the bitcoin valuation zones tell you? They classify the price by its distance from the Power Law trend: floor, accumulation, fair, hot and euphoria. At the bottom lies the floor, at the top the top band through the earlier cycle highs, today at 1.62 times the trend. On Nov 12, 2026, bitcoin stood at 0.66 times the trend, in the accumulation zone.

Expensive or cheap? The price alone doesn't tell you

$70’000 for one bitcoin: is that a lot? In 2021 it would have been a record; after the October 2025 high it is a drop of about 44%. The same price feels completely different depending on what you remember.

That very feeling leads to the most expensive mistakes. You buy when everyone is talking about records and sell when the headlines turn. The valuation zones replace the feeling with a yardstick: the price's distance from its long-term trend.

This article shows you where the zones lie today, why the upper ones move, what historically followed each zone and how to use them in your plan.

The five bitcoin valuation zones at a glance

The basis is the bitcoin Power Law. It describes bitcoin's price since 2010 as a trend that rises over time, but by a smaller percentage each year. Three lines divide the space around this trend:

• Floor: the model's lower bound, 42 % of the Power Law line. Almost all bear markets so far ended here.
• Trend: fair value according to bitcoin's history so far. Today it is 1.62 times the floor.
• Top band: the line through the earlier cycle highs. Today it is 1.62 times the trend.

The five zones lie between these lines. This is where their boundaries were on Nov 12, 2026:

Converted at the ECB reference rates of Nov 12, 2026 (€1 = $1.1081 = CHF 0.9232). The trend stood at $108’723 that day.

Notice that the zones lie close together: euphoria starts 62% above the trend, where in earlier cycles it started at many times the trend. That is not a mistake; more on it shortly. The boundaries shift every day. You can see the current state and today's zone live here:

Why hot and euphoria move

No zone has a fixed multiple of the trend. The upper ones move the most: they hang on the top band, which comes down toward the floor from cycle to cycle, ever more slowly, and never reaches it.

The reason is the cycle highs. The 2013 high was at 10.9 times the trend, 2017 at 6.3 times, 2021 at 2.8 times and October 2025 at only 1.5 times. A fixed boundary such as "euphoria from 2.5 × trend" would have flagged normal rallies as excess in 2013 and would never trigger today.

This is how the start of the upper zones shifted, each on January 1:

According to the model, the top band keeps coming down, but more slowly every year. In early 2030 hot begins 18% above the trend, and a price 39% above the trend is as high as the model expects a cycle high to be. Each zone keeps its share of the band; hot doesn't shrink to a narrow strip. That is an extrapolation of the highs so far, not a certainty. How the top band comes about and what partial sales at it have achieved so far is explained in The bitcoin top band: when partial sales make sense. Whether the cycles really are getting weaker is examined in The bitcoin four-year cycle: myth or pattern?

The boundary between accumulation and fair moves too. On the log chart it lies halfway between floor and trend. Until Jan 2022 the trend was the Power Law line, and accumulation ended at 0.65 × trend. Since then the trend has been the middle between floor and top band, and the floor is moving closer to it: on Nov 12, 2026, accumulation ended at 0.79 × trend, and in early 2030 it will be 0.85 ×.

The chart shows the three lines since 2010. The zones lie in between: below the dashed line the floor zone, at the dotted top band the boundary to euphoria.

What followed each zone

A yardstick is only useful if it says something about what comes next. So we assigned every daily close since Jan 1, 2015 to its zone and looked at where the price stood one year and four years later.

As of Nov 12, 2026. Our own analysis of daily closes in US dollars from /power-law/btc-daily.csv, each zone with the lines of that day. "Median return" is the median.

The table shows three things:

• Below fair, every purchase so far paid off after one year. Not a single day in floor or accumulation since 2015 was in the red a year later.
• From hot onwards, the balance tips. After 93% of the days in hot, the price was lower a year later, by 41% at the median.
• After four years, every zone was in the black. Even expensive purchases were eventually recovered so far, but with long dry spells in between. How such phases feel is described in FOMO, panic and capitulation.

Where the cycle highs and lows were

The zones become more tangible when you see where the turning points were. The highs were at or near the top band; the lows were close to the Power Law floor.

Daily closes: Coin Metrics until Jan 10, 2018, OKX after that. Measured against the trend, the floor has been rising since Jan 2022: until then it was at 0.42 times, in June 2026 at 0.60 times, on Nov 12, 2026 at 0.62 times. That is why 0.53 × trend was still accumulation in 2015, while 0.59 × trend closed just below the floor in June 2026.

Euphoria is rare. Since 2010, bitcoin has closed above the top band on only 96 days, most recently on Nov 15, 2021. The 2025 high stayed below it, in hot. If you wait for euphoria as your sell signal, you may wait a whole cycle.

Worked example: how many sats you get in each zone

The zones are easiest to grasp when you translate them into sats. 1 bitcoin has 100 million sats.

This calculation does not show that the price will rise again. It shows how much bitcoin your money buys today by comparison. What a regular savings plan achieves over the years you can work out in the savings plan calculator. Why the zone at the start also decided between lump sum and savings plan is shown in the backtest since 2011.

How to use the valuation zones

The site gives each zone a short reading: floor and accumulation "heavy buy", fair "buy", hot "hold", euphoria "sell a small portion only". That is the record of the past, not an instruction. Here is how you can turn it into a plan of your own:

1. Set a fixed savings amount that runs in every zone. It is your foundation and does not depend on your judgement.
2. Decide in advance what you do extra in cheap zones. For example: in floor and accumulation you add an extra instalment, as long as your emergency fund stays untouched.
3. Decide in advance what you do in expensive zones. In hot you only buy the fixed amount. In euphoria you sell at most a small, predefined portion. What such rules look like is shown in Taking bitcoin profits: partial sales by the rules.
4. Look at the zone, not the headline. Today's zone is shown in the bar at the top of every bitcoin-powerlaw.com page and on the Power Law page.
5. Write your rules down. In My Goal you enter your goal and selling rules and get them as a poster.

How far the price could fall below your purchase price if it drops to the floor, you can work out here:

Whether partial sales near the top band and buybacks at the floor would have paid off for you is calculated by the cycle calculator with your own numbers.

The limits of the zones

The zones are a tool against your own gut feeling, not a substitute for a plan. If you combine them with a fixed savings amount and rules you wrote down in advance, you use them the way they are meant to be used.