Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030, 2035, 2040 by the Power Law

What does the Power Law say for 2030, 2035 and 2040? On January 1, 2030, the trend is at around $235’000 and the floor at $168’000. In 2035 they are $688’000 and $568’000, in 2040 around $1.7 million and $1.5 million. That is a bitcoin price prediction for 2030 as a range, not a price target: the model extends 16 years of history.

Why almost every bitcoin price prediction is useless

Search for "bitcoin price prediction 2030" and you'll find figures from $10’000 to $10 million. Most give a single price, but not how it was calculated. You can't check a number like that, and in five years nobody will remember it.

For your plan you need something else: a range that comes from an open formula, and a point at which you notice that the formula no longer holds. That is exactly what the Bitcoin Power Law provides. This article works it through for 2030, 2035 and 2040, in US dollars, euros and francs.

The bitcoin price prediction for 2030, 2035 and 2040 in figures

The Power Law describes bitcoin's price as a function of the time since the genesis block on January 3, 2009. Three lines follow from it:

• Floor: 42 % of the Power Law line. Almost all bear markets have ended here so far.
• Trend: the fair value according to bitcoin's history so far. Since 2022 it has been the middle between the floor and the top band, and it moves a little closer to the floor every year.
• Top band: the line through the earlier cycle highs. It comes down toward the floor, ever more slowly, and always stays above the trend.

This is where the lines are on January 1 of each year:

Euros and francs at the ECB reference rates of Nov 12, 2026 (€1 = $1.1081 = CHF 0.9232). Nobody knows how exchange rates will develop by then. The values apply to January 1 in each case. They keep rising until the end of the year: on Dec 31, 2030, the trend is at around $295’000, at the end of 2035 at $836’000, at the end of 2040 at $2.1 million.

The chart shows how these values follow from the history so far. The three dots mark the trend on January 1 of 2030, 2035 and 2040. Move your mouse or finger over the chart to see the trend, floor and top band for every day until the end of 2040.

Why the range gets narrower every year

In the table, the top band comes closer to the floor from year to year: on Jan 1, 2030, it is 1.94 times the floor, in 2035 1.47 times, in 2040 1.27 times. That is not a mistake. The cycle highs came ever closer to the floor: in 2013 bitcoin closed at 26 times the floor, in 2017 at 15 times, in 2021 at 6.5 times and in October 2025 at only 2.7 times.

The top band extends this line. It comes down toward the floor ever more slowly and never reaches it, and the trend stays in the middle between the two. So the model no longer expects breakouts far above the trend: today the top band is 1.62 times the trend, on Jan 1, 2030, 1.39 times and in 2035 1.21 times.

The trend itself follows the Power Law line until January 2022 and has since been the middle between the floor and the top band. On 53% of all days since 2010, bitcoin closed below it, on 47% above. It lies lower than the Power Law line that other Power Law sites use: the highs have fallen from cycle to cycle, the lows haven't, and so the middle between them is below the line today. For Jan 1, 2030, the line gives around $401’000, our trend $235’000.

For your planning this means: don't count on prices far above the trend. In 2030 the top band is 39% above the trend and the floor 28% below it, and the range gets narrower every year. Since the start of 2022, the price has been below the trend on 54% of days; on Nov 12, 2026, it was at 0.66 times the trend. Where the price stands between the floor and the top band is described by the valuation zones from floor to euphoria.

Five scenarios for 2030

Instead of one number, you get five scenarios. All come from the same model; they only differ in where the price stands relative to the trend on Jan 1, 2030.

Starting point: closing price on Nov 12, 2026, $71’461 (€64’490, CHF 59’537), 7% above the floor.

Two things stand out. First: even the floor scenario means more than doubling in a little over three years. The model is optimistic, and you need to know that before you trust it. Second: the range is wide. Between the floor and the top band lies a factor of 1.9.

The point in the cycle makes a big difference. If the four-year cycle repeats, the next high would come around autumn 2029 and the next low in mid to late 2030. A date like Jan 1, 2030 could then be near the upper end or already on the way to the lower end.

Growth slows every year

The trend keeps rising, but by a smaller percentage every year. That is the nature of a power law and the most important difference from models that calculate with fixed returns.

Each from January 1 to January 1 of the following year. In the next twelve months from today, the trend grows by 29 %. The trend grows somewhat more slowly than the floor and the Power Law line (2030: +30%), because it moves closer to the floor every year.

A comparison makes this tangible: from 2015 to 2025 the trend rose from $321 to $65’832, a 205-fold increase. From 2030 to 2040, according to the formula, it rises from $235’000 to around $1.7 million, a 7-fold increase. The Power Law no longer expects returns like those of the first decade.

How big would bitcoin be then?

A price alone says little. Multiplied by the number of bitcoin it gives the market value, and that shows what the model assumes. How many bitcoin there will be then follows from the protocol's fixed rules; this is explained in why there are only 21 million bitcoin.

For comparison: in 2024 the entire world economy produced goods and services worth around $110 trillion (IMF). In 2040, bitcoin on the trend would therefore be at around a third of the world's current annual economic output. Whether the world places that much value on bitcoin as savings is not decided in a formula.

Other predictions for comparison

The Power Law is not the only model. In April 2025 the investment firm ARK Invest published three scenarios for 2030: $500’000 in the bear case, $1.2 million in the base case, $2.4 million in the bull case. ARK derives this from estimated market shares, for example of the gold market and of institutional portfolios.

The Power Law is considerably more cautious. ARK's worst case lies above the Power Law trend on Jan 1, 2030. The difference lies in the method: ARK estimates who will buy in future. The Power Law only extends how bitcoin has grown so far.

The best-known older model, Stock-to-Flow, expected prices far above the actual price after the 2024 halving. Why it failed and what the Power Law does differently is in Power Law vs. Stock-to-Flow.

Worked example: what €1’000 or CHF 1’000 could become

A single purchase is rarely the plan. What a monthly instalment adds up to by 2030, 2035 or 2040 according to the model, you can work out with your own numbers in the savings plan calculator:

How many bitcoin you need for a specific goal, such as a pension from 2040, is shown in How many sats do I need for retirement? You set your own goal in My Goal.

When you'll notice the prediction is wrong

A model that can't be tested is no help. The Power Law has a clear test: the floor rises every day. In Dec 2028 it reaches the previous all-time high of October 2025, $124’673.

If bitcoin is not above that high by then, the price will be permanently below the floor. Then the Power Law no longer describes bitcoin, and all the figures in this article are void. That is a little over two years away. So you don't have to wait until 2040 to see whether the model holds.

How strongly the prediction depends on small assumptions is shown in the critique of the Power Law. The Monte Carlo calculator calculates possible paths with your own assumptions. The forecast calculator plays through what happens when states or pension funds buy bitcoin.

How to use the prediction for your plan

1. Plan with the floor, hope for the trend. If your goal only works out when bitcoin is on the trend in 2030, your plan is too tight.
2. Think in years, not dates. January 1, 2030 can fall in the middle of a bear market. A goal with a time window of two to three years can cope with that.
3. Check the zone before you buy or sell. The Power Law page shows you today's zone live.
4. Decide how you will recognise a break. The floor test in Dec 2028 is such a point. Write down beforehand what you will do then.