Every Bitcoin Bear Market Compared: Depth, Duration and Recovery

How far does bitcoin fall in a bear market? Since 2011 there have been four completed bitcoin bear markets: −93%, −85%, −84% and −77% from the all-time high. Reaching the low took five to 14 months, getting back to the old high two to just over three years. Each crash was shallower than the one before, and almost every low sat close to the Power Law floor.

When your portfolio is suddenly cut in half

You bought when everyone was talking about bitcoin. A year later half of it is gone, and the headlines talk about the end. That is exactly when most people sell, and exactly when the question matters most: is this normal, or is it different this time?

The data has the answer. Bitcoin has a closing price for every day since 2010, and every bitcoin bear market in it can be measured: how deep, how long, how fast it recovered. This article puts them all side by side and places them against the bitcoin Power Law.

What counts as a bitcoin bear market?

On the stock market, a 20% fall from the high is often already called a bear market. For bitcoin that would happen almost every year. So we count more strictly, as on the Power Law page:

• The price falls at least 70% below its all-time high.
• The low comes at least 90 days after the high. A crash over a few days is not a bear market.
• The bear market only ends when a daily close beats the old high.

We measure with daily closing prices in US dollars. Intraday lows were sometimes lower, but they lasted only minutes.

Every bitcoin bear market compared

As of Nov 12, 2026; the 2026 low is the lowest so far. Three patterns stand out:

1. The depth is shrinking. −93, −85, −84, −77, and so far −53%. The bigger bitcoin gets, the more capital it takes to cut it in half.
2. The way down takes about a year. Since 2013, 364 to 406 days passed between high and low. 2011 was faster, and so is 2026 so far.
3. The recovery takes longer than the crash. From the low back to the old high took 459 to 771 days, or 15 to 25 months.

The bear markets in the chart: distance from the high

The chart lays all bear markets on top of each other. Each line starts at its all-time high (day 0) and shows how far below it the price was until it beat the high again. Move your mouse or finger over it to compare all cycles on the same day.

The grey lines are the completed bear markets, the orange one is the current one. Apart from a few days in June 2026 it runs above all earlier ones. On day 402, the cycles from 2013, 2017 and 2021 were still 76%, 82% and 74% below their high. Today it is 43%.

Each bear market in profile

2011: the first crash after the first hype

In spring 2011, bitcoin rose from under $1 to $29 in three months. On Jun 19, 2011, Mt. Gox, the largest exchange at the time, was hacked. By November the price had fallen to $2.11. At −93% it was the deepest bear market, carried by a tiny market in which a few sellers moved the price.

2013–2015: Mt. Gox collapses

At the end of 2013, bitcoin rose above $1’000 for the first time. The day after the high, China's central bank banned banks from trading bitcoin; in February 2014 Mt. Gox halted withdrawals and went bankrupt. The bear market dragged on for 406 days to the low. Anyone who had bought in December 2013 waited more than three years to get their money back. What exchange failures mean for your coins is covered in Crypto exchange bankrupt: what Mt. Gox to FTX teach you.

2017–2018: the end of the ICO boom

In 2017, retail investors and new tokens (ICOs) drove the price to almost $20’000. In the same month, futures trading started on the CME. In 2018 the token bubble burst, and bitcoin fell step by step for a year. The low on Dec 15, 2018 was 34% above the floor, higher than in any other bear market.

2021–2022: rate turn and a wave of bankruptcies

At the end of 2021, bitcoin reached $67’525. In 2022 central banks raised rates sharply; in May Terra/Luna collapsed, followed by Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and, in November, FTX. The low came ten days after the FTX bankruptcy, just below the floor. How interest rates affect bitcoin is explained in Interest rates, central banks and bitcoin.

Since October 2025: the shallowest decline

The most recent high so far came on Oct 6, 2025 at $124’673, for the first time without a large gap above the Power Law line: only 1.12 times it. Four days later, a wave of liquidations in leveraged futures set off the decline. The low so far came on Jun 30, 2026 at $58’628, 53% below the high and 1.5% below the floor.

By our definition this is formally not yet a bear market, because the 70% has not been reached. For someone who bought in October 2025 it still feels exactly like one. Whether the four-year rule still holds is examined in The bitcoin four-year cycle: myth or pattern?.

Bear markets and the Power Law: where the lows were

Percent from the high tells you how much a crash hurt. Where it ended only shows up against the Power Law line. The floor sits at 42 % of the line, that is 0.42 times it.

As of Nov 12, 2026. The lowest value measured against the line did not always come on the day of the lowest price: in 2015, for example, about seven months later, when the price moved sideways and the line kept rising. The period counted here runs from the high until the old high was regained.

Two things follow. First: the highs came ever closer to the Power Law line, from 15.5 × to 1.1 ×. That is why the crashes are getting shallower too, because the way from the high to the floor gets shorter. Second: bitcoin rarely traded below the floor, on 119 of more than 4’000 days across all bear markets combined. That is not guaranteed. How robust the floor is gets tested in The Power Law floor: how far can bitcoin fall?.

Big drops that don't count

Not every crash is a bear market. Three well-known drops fail our definition:

The 2021 drop was just as deep as today's and was over after six months. So a fall by half can be a bear market or just a hard correction. You only ever know afterwards.

Worked example: saving through the bear market

What did a bear market mean for someone who started exactly at the high? Two investors with $100 a month each from the high, up to the low:

And today? On Nov 12, 2026, one bitcoin cost $71’461, €64’490 or CHF 59’537. The floor was at $67’057.

What a savings plan would have earned over your own period, you can work out here:

What every bear market teaches you

1. Expect −50% and more. Every cycle had a decline like that. Hold only as much bitcoin as you can sit through it with, without having to sell.
2. Plan in years, not months. Anyone who bought at the high needed up to 1’177 days to get back to where they were. Money you need in the next three years doesn't belong in bitcoin.
3. Measure against the model, not the high. Whether a price is cheap shows in its distance to floor and trend, not to the last high. The zones for this are explained in The bitcoin valuation zones from floor to euphoria.
4. Keep saving when it hurts. In every cycle, a savings plan through the bear market did better than buying in at the high. Three buying rules for this, checked against every cycle, are in Buying bitcoin in a bear market: strategy instead of gut feeling.
5. Hold your own keys. Two of four bear markets were shaped by an exchange failure: Mt. Gox in 2014 and FTX in 2022.

Why your mind works against you in a bear market is described in HODL psychology: how to sit through the volatility. Where the price stands today is shown live on the Power Law page: