Buying Bitcoin in a Bear Market: Strategy, Not Gut Feeling

Short answer: If you want to buy bitcoin in a bear market, you need rules that are set in advance. First: your savings plan keeps running. Second: in the accumulation and floor zones, you buy more. Third: a cash reserve goes into the market in two parts, not all at once. You won't hit the bottom, and you don't need to.

Everyone is selling, and you don't know what to do

The price has been falling for months. The news says bitcoin is finished. You have money to spare and think: now it would be cheap. And right after that: what if it falls even further?

This is exactly where most people let their gut decide. Sometimes it says "wait a bit longer", sometimes "quick, put everything in". Both cost money, as the numbers below show.

This article gives you three rules you set today and simply follow in the next crash. Each one is tested against real prices. How and where to buy in the first place is covered in the guide Buying bitcoin.

Why your gut is wrong in a bear market

Bitcoin bear markets last a long time. Since 2013, it took about a year each time to go from the high to the low, and two to three years to get back to the old high. How deep and how long each one was is shown in All bitcoin bear markets compared.

During that time, your feelings almost always say: wait. After all, the price keeps falling. That is why many people stop their savings plan once the loss gets large and wait "until the market calms down". It only feels calm once the price is back up.

We worked out what that costs. Two investors buy $100 worth every month starting at the all-time high. One sticks with it. The other stops as soon as the price is 50% below the high, keeps the installments in the bank and only buys with all that money once the old high is back.

"Pause" stops at −50% and only buys at the old high. Value on the day the old high was back in each case (Feb 23, 2017, Nov 30, 2020, Mar 4, 2024). Both put in the same amount of money. The one who paused simply bought at a higher price, and bought exactly what they could have had cheaply.

Why fear and greed act at the wrong moment so reliably is explained in FOMO, panic and capitulation.

Buying bitcoin in a bear market: three rules

Rule 1: Your savings plan keeps running

The simplest rule is the most effective. A savings plan buys the same amount every month. When the price falls, you get more bitcoin for your money without deciding anything.

What the running plan delivered in the three bear markets is in the table above: $2’800 to $3’900 grew to $6’753 to $11’323 by the old high. The only thing that matters is that the installment is small enough that you can still pay it after two years of losses.

Rule 2: Buy more when the zone is cheap

The Power Law divides the price into five zones, from floor to euphoria. Two of them are interesting for buyers:

• Floor zone: The price is below the floor, the line it has only rarely and briefly fallen below since 2011.
• Accumulation: The price is between the floor and halfway to the trend (on the log chart), today up to 0.79 times the trend.

The rule: above the accumulation zone, you buy your normal installment. In the accumulation zone, double; in the floor zone, triple. What the zones mean and how often the price has been there is explained in The valuation zones from floor to euphoria.

This is how the rule performed in every bear market since 2013, with a $100 base installment from the all-time high to the old high:

As of Nov 12, 2026; the current bear market is not over yet. The zone rule needed 17 to 64% more money than the even plan. So plan the extra installments in advance, from your budget, not from your emergency fund.

Rule 3: A reserve in two parts

If you have a larger sum, such as a bonus or an inheritance, the temptation to wait for the bottom is strong. A fixed rule in two parts is better:

1. First half: as soon as the price falls into the accumulation zone.
2. Second half: as soon as it falls below the floor. If that doesn't happen within twelve months, you buy it at the end of that period.

Three times, the average was less than 11% above the low. In 2019 the deadline kicked in, and the second half was more expensive. Even then the average was three quarters below the high, and at the old high in 2020 the reserve was worth four times as much.

Whether you should invest a sum all at once or spread it out, regardless of bear markets, is shown in Savings plan or lump sum.

You won't hit the bottom

The reserve rule doesn't buy at the low, but near it. That is intentional. Nobody recognizes the low while it is happening, not even professionals. At the bottom, the news is at its worst and fear at its greatest.

What happened after the price first fell into the accumulation zone?

Some of those who bought in the zone back then saw another 17% loss. Two years later it didn't matter. Those who waited for the real low mostly missed it, because the price then rose faster than people dared to buy.

None of this is guaranteed. Bitcoin can fall lower than ever before; the model is not a promise. How deep the floor has held so far and where it might break is examined in The Power Law floor: how low can bitcoin go?.

Where bitcoin stands today

On Nov 12, 2026, bitcoin closed at $71’461, which is €64’490 or CHF 59’537. The high on Oct 6, 2025 was $124’673, so the price was 43% below it.

So the price is in the accumulation zone, just under 7% above the floor. Floor and trend rise every day; today's figures are live on the Power Law page:

The savings plan calculator works out what a savings plan can add up to over the years with your own amount:

What not to do in a bear market

Then there is the size of the whole thing. How much of your wealth belongs in bitcoin at all, so that you can sit out an 80% crash, is worked out in Bitcoin share of your portfolio. The zone rule and the reserve only apply within that limit.

Taxes in a bear market

A bear market also changes things for taxes, depending on the country (as of 2026):

• Germany: Losses on bitcoin you have held for less than a year can only be offset against other gains from private sales transactions (§ 23 EStG, the German Income Tax Act). Every new purchase starts its own one-year holding period, after which the gain is tax-free.
• Austria: Gains and losses on crypto assets bought from Mar 1, 2021 are taxed at 27.5%. Losses can only be offset against other capital income in the same year.
• Switzerland: Price gains are usually tax-free for private investors, but losses are not deductible either. Wealth tax is based on the price on Dec 31, so in a bear market it is correspondingly lower.

Don't sell just because of taxes. The rules for each country are covered in detail in the magazine's tax articles.

Your plan in five steps

1. Set your installment. Small enough that you can still pay it after two years of losses, and so that double and triple installments fit your budget.
2. Set your reserve. Money you won't need for at least four years. Split it into two halves.
3. Write down your rules. Installment × 1, × 2, × 3 depending on the zone. Reserve: half in accumulation, half at the floor or after twelve months.
4. Check once a month. The zone is on the Power Law page. You don't need to follow anything else.
5. Withdraw your coins. Regularly move the bitcoin you buy into your own wallet.

How to stick with the whole plan over the years is taught in the Academy, stage 3: Plan and live.